Tariffs and Inventory Forecast: What's Ahead for the Promotional Industry

Navigating Uncertain Times in the Promo World

The tariff program recently launched by the United States is shaking up global trade. As the U.S. places steep levies on imported products, industries that rely on overseas production are seeing the effects.

While different from COVID-19 disruptions, the potential outcomes are familiar: limited inventory, rising prices, and longer lead times. Early signs suggest that businesses relying on overseas production will need to be creative in the coming months. There is currently an import pause in the promotional world, which will likely lead to an inventory shortage.

In this environment, proactive planning and flexible sourcing strategies are essential. Businesses that use promotional products should act now to secure inventory; stocking up is the sure way to avoid disruption and maintain stable prices!

What's Changing: Tariffs and Logistics

The changes affecting the promotional products industry are coming on two fronts: tariffs and logistics.

Tariffs on Imports

The United States has already raised tariffs on a wide range of imported goods, with the steepest new tariffs on Chinese imports. This is accompanied by a baseline tariff for all other countries, which is only guaranteed during a temporary 90-day pause. After that period ends, further tariff increases are possible country-by-country, depending on the results of future trade negotiations.

Shipping Disruptions

Importing has already slowed. Per ASI, ports in China handled 9.7% less cargo during the week of April 7–13 compared to the previous week, reflecting a clear pullback by U.S. importers. Shipping costs, which had been relatively stable earlier this year, are also starting to rise.

If these trends continue and demand for cargo space surges after the 90-day window, businesses could face a tightening freight market similar to what occurred during the post-COVID shipping bottlenecks. Limited freight availability, container shortages, and rising transportation costs are risks that could all escalate sharply.

What This Means for Promotional Products

The impact of tariffs will not be spread evenly across the promotional products market. Certain categories will feel the strain much sooner and more severely than others.

What's Affected?

Products that rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing are the most exposed, including:

• Electronics and tech accessories

• Drinkware

• Pens and writing instruments

• Keychains and Novelty Items

As tariffs drive up costs and shipping slowdowns stretch delivery times, products affected by tariffs on China could carry higher prices, longer lead times, and tighter inventory by late summer.

What's Not Affected?

Some product categories are expected to remain more stable:

• Apparel, which is often sourced outside of China

• Made-in-USA products avoid overseas tariffs and shipping risks

These items offer businesses more reliable options in a tightening supply environment.

Inventory Will Move Fast

Months ago, when the first rumors of tariffs emerged, suppliers began placing larger orders than normal, securing huge amounts of inventory. Now, suppliers are pausing orders for the future until the situation becomes more predictable.

Proactive customers should place large orders from suppliers to ensure their inventory lasts through any potential shortages. If current trends continue, product availability is likely to shrink significantly within the next 90 days. Once that happens, the tariffs' impact on prices will be felt! The most popular products, colors, and sizes will be the first to go out of stock. Eventually, we could see widespread shortages and massive price increases.

Supply Chains Will Shift, but Shifts Will Take Time

Some suppliers are working to move production to other countries. However, these transitions are complex and slow. According to the Counselor State of the Industry, 88% of promotional product suppliers imported from China in 2023. Rebuilding supply chains in new regions is not a quick fix—it's a long-term effort that will take years to fully complete.

How to Avoid Overpaying for Tariffs: Promo Buyer Strategies

With uncertainty building around tariffs and supply chain issues in 2025, businesses that move quickly and plan carefully will have a major advantage. Here's how to stay ahead of the coming challenges:

Order Early

Now is the time to secure promotional products for events later this year—or even next year. Given the risk of shrinking inventory and rising prices, early orders can secure availability and better prices.

Stay Flexible

Flexibility will be key. Being open to product substitutions, alternative materials, or shifting to similar categories can be necessary if supply chains tighten. Many suppliers will offer 'good, better, best' options to fit different budgets and timelines.

Focus on Targeted Products

In this environment, it's important to use your promotional dollar wisely. Focus on products that offer long-term visibility, like apparel or reusable drinkware, instead of products that are quickly thrown out. Think about what products create the biggest return for your brand, and try to avoid expensive bells and whistles like premium packaging.

Lean into Domestic Sourcing

Made-in-USA products offer a major advantage right now. While often more expensive than their overseas counterparts, they are insulated from overseas tariffs, shipping delays, and international supply risks. Domestic options are worth serious consideration for companies that value reliability and shorter lead times.

Stay Informed

The supply chain environment is changing rapidly. Regularly communicating with your account manager will help you adapt to shifting inventory levels, pricing updates, and potential lead time changes before they become problems. At Logotech, we will always update you when new information is available.

How Logotech Can Help

In an uncertain supply environment, having a solid partner is essential. Logotech is ready to help businesses stay ahead with flexible sourcing and reliable support:

• Sourcing Expertise : We offer many made-in-USA options and diversified manufacturing outside China. Our team works directly with trusted suppliers, and we'll help you find the products as conditions change.

• Inventory Planning Assistance : Inventory planning is more important than ever. We can help forecast needs, recommend products with stable availability, and guide early orders to avoid shortages and price increases.

• Transparent Communication : Your account manager will provide updates on inventory levels, lead times, and pricing, helping you make confident decisions without last-minute surprises.

It's Time to Plan Ahead!

The promotional products industry is entering a period of real uncertainty. U.S. tariffs on Chinese products and other countries will likely lead to slower shipping and tighter inventory are already starting to reshape the market — and the pressure is likely to build in the months ahead.

Businesses that act now will be in a much stronger position. Early planning, flexible sourcing, and smart inventory decisions can help avoid price spikes, product shortages, and missed opportunities later this year.

Now is the time to plan, lock in stable prices, and build a strategy to weather whatever comes next. Create an account with Logotech or contact your account manager today!